Trust Your Instincts, But Follow The Data

Want to hear a secret about me? Come closer, I’ll share it. Ready?

I am TERRIFIED of flying.

What’s funny about it is that I fly a lot, but still on every flight I’m gripping the armrest with white knuckles, fearing for my life. And yet intellectually I know I’m safe. I’ve studied a lot of the data and I’m safer flying than I am driving my car down the interstate in a thunderstorm. All the same, I’ll happily do the second without a care in the world, and at the same time continue to be plagued by irrational fear when I board a plane.

Why is that? Why do I let my instincts overcome my rational analysis of the data? There’s a brief lesson here for when you are in a leadership role. I’ve met many, many people who assert their skill and experience as business and management experts and cite that as the reason they follow their instincts when making decisions, even when the course of action does not align with the data.

Look, I get that there are many nuances to this. Data can be easily misinterpreted or misrepresented. And furthermore there are situations where there is no data, and your instincts and intuition are what is required to move forward. But as a business leader you should always be striving to determine what data is useful for the situations you are in, and factor on the data even if it goes against your instincts. (In fact, I would venture to say if the data goes against your instincts, you should dig in EVEN MORE, because then you need to understand why the data doesn’t align. Is it the wrong data? Is your instinct wrong? Is this a truly novel situation?)

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